Once again Hans Rosling gives us new perspectives on Global Population Growth. It is so elegant and easy to understand and he presents it with such an enthusiasm. Rosling takes us from year 1960, through year 2010 to year 2050 and shows how the population will grow and how prosperity will change. This is a 10 minutes video recorded at TED@CANNES.
You may also like this animation of Global Population Growth from ages back until today.
The more I work with future studies, the more aware I become of the impact of exponential growth. Have a look at this video clip from YouTube. It gives you an idea of what we are talking about. For the first time ever, we have reached this point of development were things really speed up. To understand exponential development is probably the most important thing we do today. Research show that our intuition is linear which makes it difficult for us to “feel” exponential development. In other words; we have to actively correct our impression of development by use of intellect. In this case; do not follow your hart, follow your brain. Chris Martinson does also address this topic in his Crash Course chapter 3, which I highly recommend. Helge Hasvold 
My good friend and fellow futurist, Bjorn Brunstad has been working on future studies, searching for paradigm shifts lately. He generously shared these indicators of a paradigm shift with me.
Prior to a paradigm shift we will observe the following:
Not often, but sometimes you stumble over articles or videos that really add value. This time I was overwhelmed. For several years now, I’ve been working on issues related to economy, energy and environment. Then I stumbled over Chris Martenson on YouTube. You should not miss it for the world.
Chris gives us an overview of the major issues concerning economic growth, the money system, energy consumption, resources and environmental consequences. Seldom you find people with such insight and ability to present complex content in an easy manner without oversimplifying it. Highly recommended
The word escapism has become more and more relevant in our foresight studies. Escapism tells us about how people increasingly escape from the real world. It could be through any media; books, films, role plays… and new technologies enable us to hide faster and deeper. Gaming has become a dominant part of life for many youngsters and so has gambling, pornography and drugs for others. In a troublesome world we hide from what hurts and seek instant satisfaction. As the speed of change increases, adversity becomes more frequent. And the speed of change increases exponentially. Publishing companies adjust their products to it. People want entertainment, reality shows, action, virtual worlds and so forth.
As counter forces we observe more focus on “the meaning of life”, mindfullness, presence, simple living, yoga etc.
Change doesn’t happen by accident. “Energy” is needed. Conflicts represent such energies and we should ask; how will the lines of conflict change in the future?
Here are some types of conflicts that you may consider.
Hierarchical versus non-hierarchical
People live in hierarchical communities – it’s our nature. But hierarchies are under pressure. Freedom, equality, democracy etc. are pushing towards non-hierarchical structures. We like to dismount the pyramids and live together in other forms of relationship – like networks. On the other hand – there are always some form of hierarchical relationship between us – like in a flock of animals. People fight for power and strengthen their position in the hierarchy. Organizations withdraw power and centralize decisions when profit is threatened.
There’s definitely a trend towards flattening organizations and networking. People around forty are very much in favor of these principals. However, there’s a younger generation between 0 and 20 years today that probably will seek stronger leadership. (Ref. Howe and Strauss – The Fourth Turning) They’ll seek more teamwork and less individual thinking in contrast to the previous generation.
Rich versus poor
Some people get increasingly richer and a lot of people get poorer – some very poor. The distance is increasing. Today some multinational companies make far more money than the GNP in countries like Spain, which is not neither poor nor small. The money gets into the pocket of just a few numbers of people. This trend develops exponentially and is driven by the basics of our economical systems (interest on interest). It will not change unless we put dramatic regulations into action. Alternatively the economic system will collapse, which probably will not take place without violence.
Today we find many rich countries defending their wealth. Borders are closed an even refugees are denied access. It’s interesting to observe that several EU countries claim they need seven years for preparation before the borders towards Eastern Europe is opened.
Access to resources
One of the most common conflicts probably. Clean, fresh water is worth fighting for, and several places on earth water are a deficiency. In big cities growing even larger (like Mexico City), in China, Middle East, and North Africa etc. As the population grows the deficiency grows.
Energy is another subject to fight for. American involvement in the Middle East (Iraq, Kuwait etc) has a lot to do with control of the oil reserves. Energy is a limiting factor for economic growth, and the situation is strained.
People fight for work, for diamonds, for everything that can get life a little bit better. If other people control what they believe it’s theirs, there’s enough energy for a conflict.
Religion
Religious conflicts have been there since the dawn of day. Basically everybody wants to live in peace together with the rest of the world, but there are some obstacles. People want to recruit all other people to serve their God. People provoke and intrude on “holy land”. The act of terror on the USA September 11th includes such an element.
Ethnic / racial
The globalisation gives us an opportunity to get to know and understand each other better, and in that sense it should contribute to less conflict between people. However, people are searching back to their roots, and become more focused on their ethnic heritage.
Pluralism in the world is increasing – and an increasing number of ethnic minorities are living together. The democracies have to support the interests of the minorities and this brings up a number of conflict areas.
Democracy versus totalitarian government
A democratic wave is flushing the globe. It’s not painless because democracy is not an ideal mechanism when it comes to efficiency and logical decisions. The trend is driven by the human urge for freedom, equality and prosperity. The counter force is individuals eager for power, money and defending their own interests.
Big crises can threaten democracies if strong “leaders” take power claiming that the situation requires bold measures.
Looking back, we may see historical situations close to our own current situation that can indicate a vulnerable position. The general interest for democratic values are low and there might very well be crises ahead of us. A new generation – ready for action – may take a wider look at the situation an put bold measures into action. (
Legal versus illegal
Our community fights a never ending war against illegal groups (mafia, corruption etc) It’s not too difficult to understand why such groups exist. Some people find it easier to establish an arena outside the rules of the community to make money and conduct power.
It’s interesting to observe that the leaders of the “illegal communities” – when they obtain enough prosperity – urge for a closer connection to the legal society. Probably because their illegal communities represents limitations to their growth. (ref. Rockefeller) Cleaning money is therefore in focus. They want acceptance within legal forums (like politics). This seams to follow a cyclic development.
Politics
Political differences are a part of the political game. It changes during time – from being strong and deep to more shallow and indifferent. This seams to be a cyclic trend. These days we’re quite laid back about the politics and the differences are more constructed than real. In the 1970ies the situation was very different with strong engagement from many groups in the society.
Knowledge / competency versus illiteracy
The rapid development within technology has created new conflict areas between those who understand and are able to take advantage of the new technology and those who don’t. This will increase over the next years. Understanding bio- and nano-technology will not be easy. Neither will quantum computing.
On the other hand – knowledge about the technologies will be easier available when they mature and we get practical examples to refer to. We will probably move to a higher abstraction level in order not to focus on all the details. The accelerating speed of change will, however, increase the pain.
Strategic planning and decision making is all about taking advantage of future opportunities and navigating around future pitfalls. It’s imperative to understand how future is created.
If we exclude some environmental catastrophes, we may say, ”man creates the future”.
The forces behind the future can be divided into three components; (1) people strive to reach their goals, (2) technology enables them, and (3) a number of other actors in the surroundings react to it.
In other worlds, (1) we need to understand human development and what people will seek in the future. (2) We must recognize which tools they’ll possess, and (3) we must know the actors and their power of influence.
Human development
The most common way of exploring human development is to observe trends and driving forces and extrapolate them into the future. When doing so, we always consider counter-trends and other possible events that can break the linear development. Because, there’s one thing we know for sure, future is not created by a linear extrapolation of current trends.
I addition I want to address to you a very interesting research that has been done on how people change in time. It shows a cyclic development. In other words – history repeats itself. In the bottom of all of us we have our basic human needs and instincts like food, safety, sex etc. On top of that, generations react to each other, very much like Darwin would have described it. The historians Howe and Strauss have written several books, but the first one to read is “The Fourth Turning”.
Pressure washing the history
Working with this, I imagine history as a long dirty creature. With a high-powered pressure washer I attack history removing everything that is to be removed. Remaining is the skeleton of history – crawling along a time-line as a large snake. This is what’s sustainable in history. Despite what ever happened during time, this was untouchable. It’s been repeating itself for hundreds of years, and my question is: can we expect something similar to happen the next twenty years? I guess so – it’s at least worth considering. Howe and Strauss describe the archetypes of people and how the western world is going through seasons of life. You’ll be amazed.
The Ultimate Challenge
The technological development creates the drama. Not only enable these technologies us to solve problems in new ways, they also create a basis for new business arenas. The speed is accelerating in an exponential manner. This is the ultimate challenge for the leaders of this century. Become able to cope with the dramatic speed of change, and you’re a winner.
Technologies tend to develop along S-curves. However, some technologies break trends. We call them Disruptive Technologies. These days we got plentiful. You should learn the abbreviation NBIC (Nano, Bio, Info and Cogno). The question to ask is: How will the people we’ve described make use of the new technology they possess in the future?
The Balance of Power
Michell Godet
People execute power. We’ve got institutions and authorities that regulate markets etc. Large corporations got a lot of financial and political power. Whether you’ll succeed in reaching your goals our not is a matter of who got the power. Will the balance of power support you or fight you. Maybe the most common expression of power is “no-change”. To keep it the way it is. Change is a process that requires to be fueled. Status Quo is a point of equilibrium and only a strong vision or a cruel pain will make people change. This is possible to analyze. Get a picture of the balance of power in your surroundings, and it can guide you to success. Mr. Michel Godet and the “French School” have contributed heavily with the methodology MACTOR®. I’ve implemented the methodology into an Excel application making it possible to simulate changes and visualize complex systems.
Helge Hasvold holds a key note for Høgskolen in Buskerud with the title: The Future of Education. He addresses driving forces and disrupting technologies that will change our perspective of education.
