Jeff Hawkins is a man with great ideas. I have had great pleasure in reading his book On Intelligence. It’s a new way of looking at the brain and it’s a concept that makes sence and that absolutely can change the way we do computing in the future. Have a look at his presentation at the TED conference in February 2003.

Adversity is something we are all exposed to. Every time something unexpected happens, our world turns to pieces and we face adversity. But there are ways to handle it and it will make you even more competitive if you master the game

Most people react negatively to change. At the same time – change is the most important strategic tool you got to stay competitive in the marketplace. The number of changes that we are exposed to are dramatically increasing. In other words; to enable change is the most important challenge for leaders to address.

You may improve the way people react to change. The worst thing to happen is to get caught by surprise. Diving into something that looks very much like a depression, it could take months before a person surfaces from such an experience. For a whole organization it could take years to recover. The receipt is to make people mentally prepared for change. This you can do by reviewing different future scenarios and letting people discuss possible outcomes.

However, change will in many situations be regarded as a threat. How people react to such adversity is also a subject to address. It’s possible to measure your Adversity Response Profile™ by taking a test. Just by becoming aware of how to investigate and control your reaction, you may improve yourself with a measure of 25%. Think of that when you calculate hidden cost related to change.

PhD Mats Lindgren has documented in his paper “Strategies and Performance in Raplex Environment” that if you are able to double your strategic responsiveness, you’re about to increase your profit / growth with up to 70%. To enable this improvement you need to make people mentally prepared for change and improve their Adversity Quotient (AQ)

You have definitely experienced it your self. A lot of effort has been made to make change happen, and then, just a few weeks later, the organization is back in old tracks. Something disturbed your change process and pushed your colleagues back into old habits. Why?

It seems that the only way to make change happen is to make sure that people see their tasks in a bigger picture. That they can relate their actions to “the whole”. Only then will people stay in the new tracks and continue the change; because they see why from the big picture. This is essential for every change process and one of the major reasons why we claim that strategic issues must be addressed from a top view and given a systemic approach.

Often we have great difficulty seeing what really happens around us. This is due to the fact that our brain is trained to observe what already is known to us. Jeff Hawkins - the author of the book On Intelligence -

On Intelligence

explains this in an excellent way. The book introduces a new way of thinking about the brain. It explains how the brain performs a sort of pattern recognition of the signals it gets from our senses. When it recognizes a well known pattern, it knows how to handle it, and we get this though “oh yes, that’s what it is!”. When something strange or unknown happens, the brain will need more focus and brain capacity to handle the information. If it doesn’t mach any previous patter, it may be “forgotten” if we are not consciously taking care of it.
In the book Presence, Peter Senge and his co-writers mention a specific case that exemplifies this perfectly well;

In the early 1980s, executives from U.S. auto companies started making regular trips to Japan to find out why the Japanese automakers were outperforming their U.S. counterparts. Speaking with one Detroit executive after such a visit, Peter (Senge) could see that the executive hadn’t been impressed by the competition. “They didn’t show us real plants,” the Detroit executive said. “Why do you say that?” Peter asked. “Because there were no inventories. I’ve seen plenty of assembly facilities in my life, and these were not real plants. They’d been staged for our tour.” Within a few years, it became painfully obvious how wrong this assessment was. These managers had been exposed to a radically different type of “just-in-time” production system, and they were not prepared to see what they were being exposed to.
Do you remember the days when the value of a company was based on its assets? Those days are fare gone.

Never ever has the world experienced such a technological revolution and never ever has so few people been aware of what’s happening. Every leader need to know the basics of NBIC (Nano-technology, Bio-technology, Information-technology and Cognitive science)

Nano Carbon Tube

We’re in the middle of a technological revolution. Never ever has anything developed this fast. You may ask why; and the answer is basically that we’ve got computers that are so powerful that we can view the world in a different manner.  Previously we explore new opportunities in laboratories using what may be called try & error methodology.  Today we’ve moved the laboratory into the computer and are able to monitor and design / create new materials and components atom by atom. This has open up for the new revolution. We’ve designed new materials like NanoCarbonTubes 300 times stronger than steel per weight. At them same time, let two such tubes cross each other, and they works as transistors. They even can work as semiconductors. As you may know, both transistors and semiconductors represent the main building blocks in computers.  Being only 1 nanometer thick, it’s possible to build computers that fit into your bodycells. In 2004 we expect the first computer in this size to reach the market with 2 Terabytes of memory. Check your own computer and realize that this is huge. The smaller they are – the faster they get – and the less energy they need.

Protein

The possibility to observer matter down to atomic level gives us new knowledge about our bodies. We get to know the DNA molecule better, not to say the proteins. Proteins are small factories producing things dependent on what they’re programmed to do. This knowledge makes it possible for us to create similar artificial factories. Factories programmed to build completely different things. We believe we can make computers “grow” by them selves. The protein doesn’t only carry out a task - it copies itself. After some protein-generations we got a “factory” big enough to build great things in short time. This offers enormous possibilities, but in the same time it’s not difficult to predict dreadful consequences if something goes wrong.

Now, knowing how to modify nature, we’ll probably try to correct some of the human errors. A long list of illnesses will be healed and then we can start to optimize that human body. We’ve already started. People suffering from epilepsy may already get a chip connected to the brain that discovers the attacks and suppresses the future signals to the body. Great for epileptics – the next version may contain a calculator as bonus software.

Knowledge about our brain (Cognitive science) may help us in other areas. Till now we’ve automated manual labor. Next to come is automated operational decision.
Actually, computers have done this for long now. Neural networks create adaptive systems that learn how to make better decisions. NASA consider it impossible to program long ranging spaceships in such a way that they take into account any possible situation. The spaceship must therefore learn, make decisions and reprogram itself. Keep away from the sun and the earth – otherwise do as you think best – will be a code in these new spaceships.

This brings me to automatic programming. Experts believe that we’ll see the first systems capable of programming itself already in year 2005. Unthinkable? Well, do you remember back in the sixties when some clamed they could make a compiler? High-level program code like FORTRAN should be transformed to machine code. Many people said it wasn’t possible – at least not to make efficient code. Twenty years later we experienced something similar. The issue this time was to make computers able to design computer chips based on a high-level code (silicon compiler). The same thing happened, but today nobody consider compilers or silicon-compilers as anything strange. Therefore – in the near future self-programming systems based on artificial intellect will be common.

That brings us to the next topic – artificial intellect. Systems will learn themselves – which we know already. The systems know how to communicate. That brings us very close to systems that are aware of themselves and their surroundings. Don’t believe you can turn off your computer in ten years time. It has build up a relationship with both you and the world around you. Maybe it’s in love with another computer? Artificial pets are considered to be common in year 2012.

Gollum from Two Towers

We should have a look into Virtual Reality (VR) too before closing this file. Did you see the movie Two Towers earlier this year? An army of more than ten thousand warriors was to be created. To much work they found and started to create a warrior that had artificial intellect. They got personality through random generated parameters and the ability to react on their surroundings. That means that if one warrior pushed the other away, the second warrior would react on it. Then you copy and past ten thousand warriors to get the army. In the same movie one of the main actors was a digital representation. People evaluated this character to have a better performance than the other human actors. I think that tells us that we’ve passed the point where we can laugh about digital animation.

Within VR we’re talking about Virtual Worlds. Pretty many of them exist and one new project is integrating the Virtual World with the real one. In Project Entropia you may exchange real money into virtual money – then live in the virtual world Entropia for some time where you can buy and sell whatever you want. When you get decide to leave Entropia you may exchange the money back – either with a win or a loss.

Change doesn’t happen by accident. “Energy” is needed. Conflicts represent such energies and we should ask; how will the lines of conflict change in the future?

Here are some types of conflicts that you may consider.

Hierarchical versus non-hierarchical

People live in hierarchical communities - it’s our nature. But hierarchies are under pressure. Freedom, equality, democracy etc. are pushing towards non-hierarchical structures. We like to dismount the pyramids and live together in other forms of relationship - like networks. On the other hand – there are always some form of hierarchical relationship between us – like in a flock of animals. People fight for power and strengthen their position in the hierarchy. Organizations withdraw power and centralize decisions when profit is threatened.

There’s definitely a trend towards flattening organizations and networking. People around forty are very much in favor of these principals. However, there’s a younger generation between 0 and 20 years today that probably will seek stronger leadership. (Ref. Howe and Strauss – The Fourth Turning) They’ll seek more teamwork and less individual thinking in contrast to the previous generation.

Rich versus poor
Some people get increasingly richer and a lot of people get poorer – some very poor. The distance is increasing. Today some multinational companies make far more money than the GNP in countries like Spain, which is not neither poor nor small. The money gets into the pocket of just a few numbers of people. This trend develops exponentially and is driven by the basics of our economical systems (interest on interest). It will not change unless we put dramatic regulations into action. Alternatively the economic system will collapse, which probably will not take place without violence.

Today we find many rich countries defending their wealth. Borders are closed an even refugees are denied access. It’s interesting to observe that several EU countries claim they need seven years for preparation before the borders towards Eastern Europe is opened.

Access to resources
One of the most common conflicts probably. Clean, fresh water is worth fighting for, and several places on earth water are a deficiency. In big cities growing even larger (like Mexico City), in China, Middle East, and North Africa etc. As the population grows the deficiency grows.
Energy is another subject to fight for. American involvement in the Middle East (Iraq, Kuwait etc) has a lot to do with control of the oil reserves. Energy is a limiting factor for economic growth, and the situation is strained.

People fight for work, for diamonds, for everything that can get life a little bit better. If other people control what they believe it’s theirs, there’s enough energy for a conflict.

Religion
Religious conflicts have been there since the dawn of day. Basically everybody wants to live in peace together with the rest of the world, but there are some obstacles. People want to recruit all other people to serve their God. People provoke and intrude on “holy land”. The act of terror on the USA September 11th includes such an element.

Ethnic / racial

The globalisation gives us an opportunity to get to know and understand each other better, and in that sense it should contribute to less conflict between people. However, people are searching back to their roots, and become more focused on their ethnic heritage.
Pluralism in the world is increasing - and an increasing number of ethnic minorities are living together. The democracies have to support the interests of the minorities and this brings up a number of conflict areas.

Democracy versus totalitarian government
A democratic wave is flushing the globe. It’s not painless because democracy is not an ideal mechanism when it comes to efficiency and logical decisions. The trend is driven by the human urge for freedom, equality and prosperity. The counter force is individuals eager for power, money and defending their own interests.

Big crises can threaten democracies if strong “leaders” take power claiming that the situation requires bold measures.

Looking back, we may see historical situations close to our own current situation that can indicate a vulnerable position. The general interest for democratic values are low and there might very well be crises ahead of us. A new generation - ready for action - may take a wider look at the situation an put bold measures into action. (

Legal versus illegal

Our community fights a never ending war against illegal groups (mafia, corruption etc) It’s not too difficult to understand why such groups exist. Some people find it easier to establish an arena outside the rules of the community to make money and conduct power.

It’s interesting to observe that the leaders of the “illegal communities” - when they obtain enough prosperity - urge for a closer connection to the legal society. Probably because their illegal communities represents limitations to their growth. (ref. Rockefeller) Cleaning money is therefore in focus. They want acceptance within legal forums (like politics). This seams to follow a cyclic development.

Politics

Political differences are a part of the political game. It changes during time - from being strong and deep to more shallow and indifferent. This seams to be a cyclic trend. These days we’re quite laid back about the politics and the differences are more constructed than real. In the 1970ies the situation was very different with strong engagement from many groups in the society.

Knowledge / competency versus illiteracy

The rapid development within technology has created new conflict areas between those who understand and are able to take advantage of the new technology and those who don’t. This will increase over the next years. Understanding bio- and nano-technology will not be easy. Neither will quantum computing.

On the other hand - knowledge about the technologies will be easier available when they mature and we get practical examples to refer to. We will probably move to a higher abstraction level in order not to focus on all the details. The accelerating speed of change will, however, increase the pain.

Strategic planning and decision making is all about taking advantage of future opportunities and navigating around future pitfalls. It’s imperative to understand how future is created.

If we exclude some environmental catastrophes, we may say, ”man creates the future”.

The forces behind the future can be divided into three components; (1) people strive to reach their goals, (2) technology enables them, and (3) a number of other actors in the surroundings react to it.

In other worlds, (1) we need to understand human development and what people will seek in the future. (2) We must recognize which tools they’ll possess, and (3) we must know the actors and their power of influence.

Human development

The most common way of exploring human development is to observe trends and driving forces and extrapolate them into the future. When doing so, we always consider counter-trends and other possible events that can break the linear development. Because, there’s one thing we know for sure, future is not created by a linear extrapolation of current trends.

I addition I want to address to you a very interesting research that has been done on how people change in time. It shows a cyclic development. In other words – history repeats itself. In the bottom of all of us we have our basic human needs and instincts like food, safety, sex etc. On top of that, generations react to each other, very much like Darwin would have described it. The historians Howe and Strauss have written several books, but the first one to read is “The Fourth Turning”.

Pressure washing the history

Working with this, I imagine history as a long dirty creature. With a high-powered pressure washer I attack history removing everything that is to be removed. Remaining is the skeleton of history – crawling along a time-line as a large snake. This is what’s sustainable in history. Despite what ever happened during time, this was untouchable. It’s been repeating itself for hundreds of years, and my question is: can we expect something similar to happen the next twenty years? I guess so – it’s at least worth considering. Howe and Strauss describe the archetypes of people and how the western world is going through seasons of life. You’ll be amazed.

The Ultimate Challenge

The technological development creates the drama. Not only enable these technologies us to solve problems in new ways, they also create a basis for new business arenas. The speed is accelerating in an exponential manner. This is the ultimate challenge for the leaders of this century. Become able to cope with the dramatic speed of change, and you’re a winner.

Technologies tend to develop along S-curves. However, some technologies break trends. We call them Disruptive Technologies. These days we got plentiful. You should learn the abbreviation NBIC (Nano, Bio, Info and Cogno). The question to ask is: How will the people we’ve described make use of the new technology they possess in the future?

The Balance of Power

Michell Godet

People execute power. We’ve got institutions and authorities that regulate markets etc. Large corporations got a lot of financial and political power. Whether you’ll succeed in reaching your goals our not is a matter of who got the power. Will the balance of power support you or fight you. Maybe the most common expression of power is “no-change”. To keep it the way it is. Change is a process that requires to be fueled. Status Quo is a point of equilibrium and only a strong vision or a cruel pain will make people change. This is possible to analyze. Get a picture of the balance of power in your surroundings, and it can guide you to success. Mr. Michel Godet and the “French School” have contributed heavily with the methodology MACTOR®. I’ve implemented the methodology into an Excel application making it possible to simulate changes and visualize complex systems.