There are five phases in a crisis: (1) The triggering event, (2) The escalation, (3) The crisis, (4) The recovery and (5) The post-crisis depression. Is Europe past phase 2? Maybe not. Several countries are struggling to avoid a tailspin. As futurists we need to be able to tell the story about the recovering Europe. Do you have such a story?
Maybe you have had a look at The World Energy Outlook 2011 which IEA published in November 2011. If not, you may find a summary here. The Americans (EIA) did also make their International Energy Outlook 2011 which you may find here.
The numbers tell us that neither IEA nor EIA expect the world to act on the climate crises.The energy consumption will grow, especially in developing countries. The scenario FROG (First raise our growth) wich is a part of the WBCSD (World Business Council for Sustainable Development) Global Scenarios 2000-2050: Exploring Sustainable Development is becoming more and more actual.
IEA claims that we got until year 2017 to reach the goal of less than 2 degrees celsius increase in global temperature. The economic crisis in Japan, USA and Europe has not reduced the total energy consumption. Rather the oposite, it increases and so does the energy intensity. » Continue reading “World Energy Outlook”
When having developed future scenarios, you may want to monitor indicators that can tell you towards which scenario things are developing. Today I will present a few tools that have two things in common; they are simple to use and free.
Remember to monitor not only “the nice” indicators that confirms your dream scenario, but also those which can give you an early warning of other outcomes.
This is a great visualization of the way our population has grown. Enjoy!
7 billion: how did we get so big so fast
This is an astonishing presentation of how bio-engineering is developing around the world. You just have to see it.
Once again Hans Rosling gives us new perspectives on Global Population Growth. It is so elegant and easy to understand and he presents it with such an enthusiasm. Rosling takes us from year 1960, through year 2010 to year 2050 and shows how the population will grow and how prosperity will change. This is a 10 minutes video recorded at TED@CANNES.
Futurists have for quite some time been discussing if design will be the only and ultimate thing. Introducing the personal factory, Mr Eric Drexler (Nanorex) envisioned a future where every one of us owns a molecular factory. Back in the 80´s designers started using 3D printing to make prototypes. This technology has also developed masterly, and today you may print fully functional products directly out of a 3D design file. The picture on this page shows how Stratasys made this engine with propellers. Although this is a prototype, it shows how large a product you can make. You may also have a look at this video showing Stratasys FDM (Fused Deposition Modeling) Process.
The more I work with future studies, the more aware I become of the impact of exponential growth. Have a look at this video clip from YouTube. It gives you an idea of what we are talking about. For the first time ever, we have reached this point of development were things really speed up. To understand exponential development is probably the most important thing we do today. Research show that our intuition is linear which makes it difficult for us to “feel” exponential development. In other words; we have to actively correct our impression of development by use of intellect. In this case; do not follow your hart, follow your brain. Chris Martinson does also address this topic in his Crash Course chapter 3, which I highly recommend. Helge Hasvold
My good friend and fellow futurist, Bjorn Brunstad has been working on future studies, searching for paradigm shifts lately. He generously shared these indicators of a paradigm shift with me.
Prior to a paradigm shift we will observe the following:
- Vested interests protect existing paradigm and deter challenging concepts
- Some of the activities that prolong the existing, become absurd
- Risk taking entrepreneurs and new technologies enable new solutions
- Actors suffering from existing paradigm support new regime
- Parent mindset about the new paradigm is not generally understood, and the new is often valued based on old measures